I fully expect that by 10pm I will be crying like a child. Like a happy, hopeful, proud child. Someone recently asked me why this means so much to me, well, I'll tell ya. From a very young age my parents taught me that it matters who makes, upholds and interprets the laws of this country. Some of my earliest memories are of listening to my father talk about evil Tricky Dick (Richard Nixon). Obviously, they were/are liberal hippies.
And the things they taught me then were: Never judge people by the way they look. Always help others in need. Always root for the underdog. Don't fight (I admit that I have amended this one to: Only fight in self defense or in the defense of others, stop when the threat is gone, try to be conciliatory afterwards). Don't take more than you can use. Humans are not the only things on the planet, animals and plants are important too and deserve respect. Don't steal. Always try to imagine how things look and feel from the other person's point of view. Try to do things on your own but don't be afraid to ask for help. Try to include everyone.
Extrapolate any of those things out into essays on what government should be responsible for or the role of America in the world or what should welfare mean and they still work for me. I could probably come up with more and some of the things listed here I tend to forget or ignore but for the most part this is what my worldview could be boiled down to.
From what I've seen, from legislation passed to issues debated to methods of governance the Republican party is antithetical to most of the values listed above. And then to realize that almost 70% of my life has been spent with a Republican president in office. That I came of age during the Reagan years, REAGAN, I didn't think it was possible to detest a president more until W. That I have seen 1 very possibly 2 elections stolen. That I have seen the writ of habeas corpus, the constitution, freedom of speech come under direct attack from our own government. That I have seen America become a practitioner of torture. That I have seen the government actually fail to respond to a national disaster. That our nation continues to become divided into the super rich and the debtor poor and our economy has been brought to its knees in order to maintain that division. That all of these things, in my mind, derive specifically from Republican rule.
Yeah, this election means a lot to me and it should mean a lot to everyone else. We are actually on the verge of electing someone who embodies the ideals that make America exceptional. So, yeah, I will be crying tonight. For the return of hope. For the return of the helping hand of America. For the restoration our reputation as the arbiter of the world. For rebirth of the belief of I am my brothers keeper. For the return of an individual and collective sense of responsibility.
Very sad, it means his victory tomorrow will be tempered with...I can't think of the right word, seriousness, thoughtfulness...
This comment: Regardless of the outcome of the election, it is a big deal. I interrupted my class to tell them of the sad news of Obama’s grandmother passing. I said that on the eve of what may be his great achievement, he does not have his mom, his dad nor his grandmother or grandfather. One student put it in perspective. “Yes, “she said, “but he has us…” Comment by Daddio - November 3, 2008 at 5:17 pm
from this WSJ article made me tear up a bit. We're all in this together now.
Some may disagree with me but I don't see how Barack Obama would be on the verge of the landslide victory that is about to happen without the netroots. Peter Daou over at Huffington Post agrees.
So, one reporter puts a quote in an article and NONE of the networks followed up to check the full quote, or to verify it, or try to interpret what Obama was actually trying to convey. Why? Because doing that would destroy the message they wanted to give. As you see in the clip eventually they came around to, "Oh wait, maybe he was actually saying the exact opposite of what we reported that he said." A$$hats. Except for Rachel Maddow, thank you Rachel.
I sure hope the Republicans keep pushing that "Obama is an elitist" smear. 'Cuz all the elitists I know sit around in folding $10 lawn chairs from Sports Authority, watching their daughter's soccer game and joking around with their wives.
Found this Electoral College tracking tool. My most pessimistic prediction is a 270-268 Obama win (need 270 to win). The swing state for me - Virginia. And actually, in this scenario, Obama loses Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.
My most optimistic is 362-176 landslide. I think the deep South, with the exception of Florida (can we give it back to the Spanish already) is very much in play. I could see North Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi and Louisiana going for Obama. Also, the Mountain West and the Southwest might have some surprises. I think Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado are all in play, with New Mexico almost sure to go blue. Montana, North and South Dakota might be possible with Montana being the most likely.
So WV voters are going to overwhelmingly endorse Clinton maybe by as much as 40%. So what. By that I mean it really isn't going to make much of a difference in the nominating process. WV has 28 pledged delegates at stake and I think the most likely split is 19-9 for Clinton. And apologies to all the people who aren't racist in WV but 25% of Clinton voters cited race as a deciding factor. The demographics of WV, for the most part, mean that Clinton wins the over 65 crowd, the poor, the under-educated and the bigots, sounds like a Republican's wet dream. Hopefully, Obama is able to win over some of the over 65 crowd, the poor, and under-educated. Screw the bigots.
Wednesday: First, for any Obama supporters who are feeling nervous or depressed, don't worry read this. The best part is the counter to "no Democrat has won the presidency without winning WV's 5 electoral votes." No Democrat has won the presidency without winning DC...and Obama won DC by 52%.
Which also brings me to this:
Notice where Obama took the lead? That's right, the Potomac Primary. Makes me proud to be a Virginian.
Something else to chew on: if you're not white and not male and not straight and not Christian, you're probably a Democrat. Minorities are not minorities when they are together and they overwhelmingly identify with the Democratic party and they are stepping into roles of power within the party. The Republicans have the white, male, straight, Christians, we have everyone else. I would speculate that the Republicans won't even have that demographic much longer.
With Obama's win in NC and squeaker loss in IN Clinton is done. Playing around with CNN's delegate tracker there are ways that she could still pull it out. But those scenarios are so unlikely as to be non-existent. Let's start with an across the board number for all the remaining races. If she wins all of them (WV, KY, OR, MT, SD, PR) by 85% she would still need 60% of the remaining unannounced super delegates. That 85% is impossible. Hell, in IN McCain only won 77% running unopposed.
So, let us look at some more realistic results. WV - she will win WV and she'll win it big. I'll give her the best result she has had and say she wins it 65%-35%. For many of the same reasons she will win KY, probably not by as large a margin but for argument's sake we'll say she does. OR looks like an Obama win and it should be a comfortable 5%-10% margin but we'll say he squeaks by with a 52%-48% win. I haven't seen any polls for MT so it is a bit of a mystery, it is more rural which favors Clinton but it is a Mountain West state which favors Obama. The netroots/blogger community has been very influential in the rise of the MT Democratic party which also favors Obama. I'm sure there are other factors but I'm going to give it slightly to Obama, 52%-48%. SD I think is similar to MT with the exception of the netroots/blogger influence. The one poll I've seen from there had Obama 46% Clinton 34% with 10% undecided. We'll give Clinton all of the undecideds and split the mystery missing 10% to give Obama another 52%-48% squeaker. Finally, PR. For reasons I can't figure out Clinton does very well with Hispanics so we'll give her another landslide 65%-35%. Given all that she would still need 78% of the super delegates.
In conclusion, right now Clinton could technically still pull it off. But, here are the absolute numbers. If Obama gets 188 of the remaining 488 delegates it doesn't matter what else happens. I don't think he reaches that number until after the last primaries on June 3. For that reason, I don't think Clinton should concede yet, BUT, I do think she should recognize the inevitable and change her campaign focus from bringing down Obama to unifying the party and attacking McCain. Will she do that? I doubt it but unlike her and her supporters I have HOPE.
Update: Something I noticed about their respective websites. They both have a "Find an Event" tool. Clinton's defaults to within 250 miles of your zip code. Obama's defaults to within 100 miles. Clinton's turns up 4 events, Obama 237 events at the 250 mile distance.
I have been avoiding politics lately, mostly because I was fighting off teh killah strep bacteria of pain. So, I've really kinda missed the whole build up of this Obama/Wright (his pastor) brouhaha. But now I'm paying attention and I won't lie, I'm very nervous about Obama's speech. On the one hand I like to see a Democrat who is going to aggressively and substantively attack the skewed narrative of the corporate media. But on the other hand, he is talking about race and racism which is alive and well in America. And unfortunately there is a lot of nuance required to walk that fine line of race discussions in this country. I am worried about the ease with which that nuance can be ignored or twisted. Will the voting public take the time and effort to hear what Obama is saying and embrace it or will they continue to let the corporate media interpret things for them? I fear the latter but hope for the former, because, dayummm, that's one of the best speeches addressing race I've ever heard.
After Obama crushes McCain in the general it can be said that the netroots (internet based grassroots blogging activists) have arrived. And the traditional media and the political consultants will become second tier. What makes me say this? Oh, only that Obama has now passed the 1,000,000 individual donor mark. We, the people, own this.