It's all over but the crying

With Obama's win in NC and squeaker loss in IN Clinton is done. Playing around with CNN's delegate tracker there are ways that she could still pull it out. But those scenarios are so unlikely as to be non-existent. Let's start with an across the board number for all the remaining races. If she wins all of them (WV, KY, OR, MT, SD, PR) by 85% she would still need 60% of the remaining unannounced super delegates. That 85% is impossible. Hell, in IN McCain only won 77% running unopposed.

So, let us look at some more realistic results. WV - she will win WV and she'll win it big. I'll give her the best result she has had and say she wins it 65%-35%. For many of the same reasons she will win KY, probably not by as large a margin but for argument's sake we'll say she does. OR looks like an Obama win and it should be a comfortable 5%-10% margin but we'll say he squeaks by with a 52%-48% win. I haven't seen any polls for MT so it is a bit of a mystery, it is more rural which favors Clinton but it is a Mountain West state which favors Obama. The netroots/blogger community has been very influential in the rise of the MT Democratic party which also favors Obama. I'm sure there are other factors but I'm going to give it slightly to Obama, 52%-48%. SD I think is similar to MT with the exception of the netroots/blogger influence. The one poll I've seen from there had Obama 46% Clinton 34% with 10% undecided. We'll give Clinton all of the undecideds and split the mystery missing 10% to give Obama another 52%-48% squeaker. Finally, PR. For reasons I can't figure out Clinton does very well with Hispanics so we'll give her another landslide 65%-35%. Given all that she would still need 78% of the super delegates.

In conclusion, right now Clinton could technically still pull it off. But, here are the absolute numbers. If Obama gets 188 of the remaining 488 delegates it doesn't matter what else happens. I don't think he reaches that number until after the last primaries on June 3. For that reason, I don't think Clinton should concede yet, BUT, I do think she should recognize the inevitable and change her campaign focus from bringing down Obama to unifying the party and attacking McCain. Will she do that? I doubt it but unlike her and her supporters I have HOPE.

Update: Something I noticed about their respective websites. They both have a "Find an Event" tool. Clinton's defaults to within 250 miles of your zip code. Obama's defaults to within 100 miles. Clinton's turns up 4 events, Obama 237 events at the 250 mile distance.