5.31.2008
5.30.2008
So, about Scottie's book
So, former chief liar White House spokesperson, Scottie McClellen has written a book saying that most of what he said as spokesperson was lying propaganda.
Karl Rove's response:
Well, Karl, you are correct it does sound like a left-wing blogger because we were/are FUCKING RIGHT. Sorry for the profanity but sometimes there is just no other way to convey something.
Karl Rove's response:
This doesn't sound like Scott, it really doesn't, not the Scott McClellan I've known for a long time. Sounds like a left-wing blogger.
Well, Karl, you are correct it does sound like a left-wing blogger because we were/are FUCKING RIGHT. Sorry for the profanity but sometimes there is just no other way to convey something.
5.29.2008
Hey
Hillary, Bill, Terry McAuliffe, Howard Wolfson, Geraldine Ferraro, James Carville, Harold Ickes:
Doesn't look like his daughters are too pleased with you either.
Doesn't look like his daughters are too pleased with you either.
5.28.2008
This is fun
Found this Electoral College tracking tool. My most pessimistic prediction is a 270-268 Obama win (need 270 to win). The swing state for me - Virginia. And actually, in this scenario, Obama loses Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.
My most optimistic is 362-176 landslide. I think the deep South, with the exception of Florida (can we give it back to the Spanish already) is very much in play. I could see North Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi and Louisiana going for Obama. Also, the Mountain West and the Southwest might have some surprises. I think Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado are all in play, with New Mexico almost sure to go blue. Montana, North and South Dakota might be possible with Montana being the most likely.
My most optimistic is 362-176 landslide. I think the deep South, with the exception of Florida (can we give it back to the Spanish already) is very much in play. I could see North Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi and Louisiana going for Obama. Also, the Mountain West and the Southwest might have some surprises. I think Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado are all in play, with New Mexico almost sure to go blue. Montana, North and South Dakota might be possible with Montana being the most likely.
OMGWTF!
Words almost fail me. The jackassiest president in all past and future history just surpassed his own record for jackassiness.
5.13.2008
West Virginia results coming in... zzzzz
I started this post yesterday morning:
So WV voters are going to overwhelmingly endorse Clinton maybe by as much as 40%. So what. By that I mean it really isn't going to make much of a difference in the nominating process. WV has 28 pledged delegates at stake and I think the most likely split is 19-9 for Clinton. And apologies to all the people who aren't racist in WV but 25% of Clinton voters cited race as a deciding factor. The demographics of WV, for the most part, mean that Clinton wins the over 65 crowd, the poor, the under-educated and the bigots, sounds like a Republican's wet dream. Hopefully, Obama is able to win over some of the over 65 crowd, the poor, and under-educated. Screw the bigots.
Wednesday:
First, for any Obama supporters who are feeling nervous or depressed, don't worry read this. The best part is the counter to "no Democrat has won the presidency without winning WV's 5 electoral votes." No Democrat has won the presidency without winning DC...and Obama won DC by 52%.
Which also brings me to this:
Notice where Obama took the lead? That's right, the Potomac Primary. Makes me proud to be a Virginian.
Finally, the real stories from yesterday. MS-01, which proves that no Republican seat is safe (DCCC press release), and NE-Sen, which proves once again that the Netroots have clout.
Something else to chew on: if you're not white and not male and not straight and not Christian, you're probably a Democrat. Minorities are not minorities when they are together and they overwhelmingly identify with the Democratic party and they are stepping into roles of power within the party. The Republicans have the white, male, straight, Christians, we have everyone else. I would speculate that the Republicans won't even have that demographic much longer.
So WV voters are going to overwhelmingly endorse Clinton maybe by as much as 40%. So what. By that I mean it really isn't going to make much of a difference in the nominating process. WV has 28 pledged delegates at stake and I think the most likely split is 19-9 for Clinton. And apologies to all the people who aren't racist in WV but 25% of Clinton voters cited race as a deciding factor. The demographics of WV, for the most part, mean that Clinton wins the over 65 crowd, the poor, the under-educated and the bigots, sounds like a Republican's wet dream. Hopefully, Obama is able to win over some of the over 65 crowd, the poor, and under-educated. Screw the bigots.
Wednesday:
First, for any Obama supporters who are feeling nervous or depressed, don't worry read this. The best part is the counter to "no Democrat has won the presidency without winning WV's 5 electoral votes." No Democrat has won the presidency without winning DC...and Obama won DC by 52%.
Which also brings me to this:
Notice where Obama took the lead? That's right, the Potomac Primary. Makes me proud to be a Virginian.
Finally, the real stories from yesterday. MS-01, which proves that no Republican seat is safe (DCCC press release), and NE-Sen, which proves once again that the Netroots have clout.
Something else to chew on: if you're not white and not male and not straight and not Christian, you're probably a Democrat. Minorities are not minorities when they are together and they overwhelmingly identify with the Democratic party and they are stepping into roles of power within the party. The Republicans have the white, male, straight, Christians, we have everyone else. I would speculate that the Republicans won't even have that demographic much longer.
5.12.2008
This makes me sad.
Whenever I think of my DC United heroes: Marco Etcheverry,Jaime Moreno, John Harkes, Eddie Pope, Carlos Llamosa I always leave out Ben Olsen. Because, for me, he is a given, the bedrock upon which the tradition of United has been built. So when I hear that he, like Josh Gros, may have to retire prematurely, it makes me sad.
5.07.2008
It's all over but the crying
With Obama's win in NC and squeaker loss in IN Clinton is done. Playing around with CNN's delegate tracker there are ways that she could still pull it out. But those scenarios are so unlikely as to be non-existent. Let's start with an across the board number for all the remaining races. If she wins all of them (WV, KY, OR, MT, SD, PR) by 85% she would still need 60% of the remaining unannounced super delegates. That 85% is impossible. Hell, in IN McCain only won 77% running unopposed.
So, let us look at some more realistic results. WV - she will win WV and she'll win it big. I'll give her the best result she has had and say she wins it 65%-35%. For many of the same reasons she will win KY, probably not by as large a margin but for argument's sake we'll say she does. OR looks like an Obama win and it should be a comfortable 5%-10% margin but we'll say he squeaks by with a 52%-48% win. I haven't seen any polls for MT so it is a bit of a mystery, it is more rural which favors Clinton but it is a Mountain West state which favors Obama. The netroots/blogger community has been very influential in the rise of the MT Democratic party which also favors Obama. I'm sure there are other factors but I'm going to give it slightly to Obama, 52%-48%. SD I think is similar to MT with the exception of the netroots/blogger influence. The one poll I've seen from there had Obama 46% Clinton 34% with 10% undecided. We'll give Clinton all of the undecideds and split the mystery missing 10% to give Obama another 52%-48% squeaker. Finally, PR. For reasons I can't figure out Clinton does very well with Hispanics so we'll give her another landslide 65%-35%. Given all that she would still need 78% of the super delegates.
In conclusion, right now Clinton could technically still pull it off. But, here are the absolute numbers. If Obama gets 188 of the remaining 488 delegates it doesn't matter what else happens. I don't think he reaches that number until after the last primaries on June 3. For that reason, I don't think Clinton should concede yet, BUT, I do think she should recognize the inevitable and change her campaign focus from bringing down Obama to unifying the party and attacking McCain. Will she do that? I doubt it but unlike her and her supporters I have HOPE.
Update: Something I noticed about their respective websites. They both have a "Find an Event" tool. Clinton's defaults to within 250 miles of your zip code. Obama's defaults to within 100 miles. Clinton's turns up 4 events, Obama 237 events at the 250 mile distance.
So, let us look at some more realistic results. WV - she will win WV and she'll win it big. I'll give her the best result she has had and say she wins it 65%-35%. For many of the same reasons she will win KY, probably not by as large a margin but for argument's sake we'll say she does. OR looks like an Obama win and it should be a comfortable 5%-10% margin but we'll say he squeaks by with a 52%-48% win. I haven't seen any polls for MT so it is a bit of a mystery, it is more rural which favors Clinton but it is a Mountain West state which favors Obama. The netroots/blogger community has been very influential in the rise of the MT Democratic party which also favors Obama. I'm sure there are other factors but I'm going to give it slightly to Obama, 52%-48%. SD I think is similar to MT with the exception of the netroots/blogger influence. The one poll I've seen from there had Obama 46% Clinton 34% with 10% undecided. We'll give Clinton all of the undecideds and split the mystery missing 10% to give Obama another 52%-48% squeaker. Finally, PR. For reasons I can't figure out Clinton does very well with Hispanics so we'll give her another landslide 65%-35%. Given all that she would still need 78% of the super delegates.
In conclusion, right now Clinton could technically still pull it off. But, here are the absolute numbers. If Obama gets 188 of the remaining 488 delegates it doesn't matter what else happens. I don't think he reaches that number until after the last primaries on June 3. For that reason, I don't think Clinton should concede yet, BUT, I do think she should recognize the inevitable and change her campaign focus from bringing down Obama to unifying the party and attacking McCain. Will she do that? I doubt it but unlike her and her supporters I have HOPE.
Update: Something I noticed about their respective websites. They both have a "Find an Event" tool. Clinton's defaults to within 250 miles of your zip code. Obama's defaults to within 100 miles. Clinton's turns up 4 events, Obama 237 events at the 250 mile distance.
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